XAU/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 05/10/2018 – 12/10/2018

Descending trend for the pair XAU/USD continues. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1235.54.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant below the level of 1235.54 with a target of 1140.70 – 1120.00.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 1235.54 will allow the pair to continue rising to a level of 1252.93 and higher.

Analysis: A downward impetus 1 is supposed to continue developing within the wave (C) of senior level on the daily time frame. A downward impetus is developing as the third wave iii of 1 on the 4-hour timeframe with the wave (iii) of iii formed and the local correction (iv) of iii nearing completion inside. Supposedly, the wave c of (iv) is developing on the 1H time frame. If the presumption is correct, the pair will resume falling to the levels of 1140.70 – 1120.00. The level 1235.54 is critical in this scenario.