XAU/USD: Wave analysis and forecast for 15/02/2019 – 22/02/2019

The pair XAU/USD is still likely to fall. Estimated pivot point is at a level of 1326.67.

Main scenario: short positions will be relevant below the level of 1326.67 with a target of 1243.18 – 1159.49.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation above the level of 1326.67 will allow the pair to continue rising to a level of 1365.26 and higher.

Analysis: Supposedly, the wave of senior level (C) continues developing on the daily time frame, with the wave 1 of (C) formed inside. On H4 time-frame, apparently, an upward correction is completed in the form of the wave 2 of (C), with the wave c of 2 formed inside. Supposedly, the first counter-trend wave of junior level i of (i) has been formed and a correction finished forming as wave ii of (i) on the H1 time frame. If the presumption is correct, the pair will logically drop to the  levels 1243.18 – 1159.49 in the long term. The level  1326.67 is critical in this scenario.