USD/СAD: wave analysis and forecast for 30.08.19 – 06.09.19

The probability of an increase in USD/CAD remains. Estimated pivot point is at the level of 1.3225.

Main scenario: “long positions” are relevant from corrections above the level of 1.3225 with the target of 1.3432 – 1.3564.

Alternative scenario: breakout and consolidation below the level of 1.3225 will allow for a decrease to 1.3178 – 1.3102.

Analysis: within the daily timeframe, the downward correction has presumably formed as the second wave of the senior level (2) and the wave (3) has started forming. On the 4-hour timeframe, the formation of the first wave of the junior level 1 of (3), which includes the wave iii of 1, is developing. Within H1 timeframe, it seems that the correction as wave (ii) of iii is completed and the third wave (iii) of iii is being formed. If this assumption is correct, then the pair will continue to rise to the levels of 1.3432 – 1.3564. Critical level for this scenario is 1.3225.