Today’s Financial Events 22 March 2018

Today’s Financial Events 22 March 2018

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Main Points of Today

BoE expected to remain on hold today

  • BoE will announce its interest rate decision today (12:30 GMT) and is expected to remain on hold at 0.50%.
  • GBP OIS imply a probability to remain on hold at around 89%, while the rest is for a 25 basis points rate hike.
  • Market focus is expected to shift to the banks accompanying statement as well as the actual votes for any discerning voices.
  • We see the case for the statement to have a well balanced tone however risks seem to tilt to the upside for a more hawkish tone.
  • Should there be a hawkish tone ahead of a possible May rate hike, we could see the GBP strengthening.

The Fed hiked yesterday however the USD weakened

  • The FOMC decided a 25 basis points rate hike yesterday and the Fed’s interest rates reached 1.75%.
  • The renewed dot plot did not show the 4 rate hike path many analysts expected.
  • Overall, despite the well balanced tone and the positive economic projections the absence of any hawkish elements in the accompanying statement and the press conference could have disappointed the market somewhat.
  • The USD should start stabilizing and correcting after the initial expectations gap.

Today’s other economic highlights

  • France: Markit Mfg Preliminary PMI for March, Survey:55.5 Prior:55.9, 08:00 GMT, could weaken the EUR
  • Germany: Markit Mfg Preliminary PMI for March, Survey:59.8 Prior:60.6, 08:30 GMT, could weaken the EUR Ifo Business  Climate for March, Survey:114.8 Prior:115.4, 09:00 GMT, could weaken the EUR
    Ifo Current Conditions for March, Survey: 55.0 Prior: 55.3, 09:00 GMT, could weaken the EUR
  • Eurozone: Markit Mfg Preliminary PMI for March, Survey:58.1 Prior:58.6, 09:00 GMT, could weaken the EUR
  • UK: Retail Sales for February, Survey:+0.4% mom Prior:+0.1% mom, 09:30 GMT, could strengthen the GBP
  • US: Initial Jobless Claims, Survey:225k Prior:226k,12:30 GMT, neutral for USD Markit Mfg Preliminary PMI for March, Survey:55.5 Prior:55.3, 13:45 GMT, neutral to negative for USD
  • Speakers: ECB’s Sabine Lautenschlaeger (08:30, GMT), BoE’s Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden (17:00, GMT) and BoC’s senior Deputy Governor Carolyn A. Wilkins speak.

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